tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg March 16, 2017 11:00pm-12:01am EDT
in another indian state. and that the hatred against the two big cola makers. equities. currencies, commodities and bonds. when you take to ban out of the mix, what a session we are having. have a look at this. this is one of the markets we are following. this is one of the later ones to open, and indonesian market. jakarta hitting a record high, a 17 year chart. here is your price level. this is your 14 day rsi. i brought the bottom panel up, we're at 17 for the rsi. the momentum may have gotten too strong, too quick in a short amount of time. that being said, interesting comments coming out of goldman sachs. indonesian equities see the
attractingnuing, more inflows back into the market. most central banks the next few weeks, is that something to trade on when we look at fundamentals within the markets? and the dividends story as well? very interesting when you look at where we are and where we are likely to go. indonesian stocks hitting a fresh record high, that came about 40 minutes back. in the meantime, let's get the first word news. saudi arabia says opec and its allies are prepared to extend production cuts beyond june. global interest rates remain high. they told bloomberg that if supplies are still excessive and the markets are not confident, the curbs could be fixed -- sustained. they will decide whether to continue the restrictions aimed at ending the global oil glut. >> my colleagues from
oil-producing nations have been cooperating with us quite nicely . we are satisfied that we are on track. and there are fluctuations in price. singapore's nonoil domestic exports increased at the fastest pace in five years, adding to a recovery and an economy dependent on trade. shipments rose 21.5%, almost double the median forecast. exports increased 17% in the period, beating expectations after a 6% gain in january. germany and china have reaffirmed their commitment to free trade area chancellor angela merkel and presidents xi jinping pledged cooperation to keep global markets open. the call happened moments before merkel's departure to washington to meet trump.
she is expected to raise concerns about protectionism when she meets the president. hundreds of hong kong taxi drivers are rallying outside the city's legislative council to protest franchisors. they opposed the proposal to license 600 new rhenium taxis, charging higher fares for enhanced services, including online booking. drivers are contractors, not employees. hong kong has 18,000 taxis that will arrive next month for the first time in three years. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. >> secretary of state rex tillerson is taking washington's message to asia, saying it is time for a new approach when it comes to the north korea issue. our correspondent is following the region. steve, at the moment, any clues
as to what this new approach might be? right yes, just clues now. a new or different approach could be anything except what they are doing now. what is happening now is nothing. it has long since collapsed. right now, china is a little miffed that the united states deployed this new missile which i would assume the secretary of state is reviewing now when he towards the demilitarized zone. he flew in from tokyo to seoul and is reviewing troops at the air force base and reviewing what is happening at the dmz. it is a tricky. of time for the secretary of state. we do not know exactly what he has in mind when he says on the one hand they need a new and different approach. he also offered an olive branch to the north koreans, saying,
you do not have anything to fear from the united states and its allies in north asia. i paraphrase. let's hear directly from rex tillerson when he spoke at a joint conference with his japanese counterpart in tokyo. >> north korea and its people need not fear the united states or their neighbors in the region who seek only to live in peace with north korea. with a this in mind, the knighted states called on north korea to abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and refrain from any further provocations. he is talking about provocations. the north koreans and chinese believe the united states has been provocative, especially as i have mentioned about that thaad antimissile system deployed. we have a north korean official calling an impromptu pressor or briefing at the embassy of beijing, reiterating what pyongyang has long since set, the situation is already on the
brink of nuclear war. from the frying pan into the fire as he goes from south korea into beijing over the weekend. he arrived in south korea a few hours back, as you alluded to. in hard part is when he is beijing tomorrow. what can we expect from those talks? >> what is the new and different approach he is going to be pitching? he obviously talked with the japanese about, he will talk with the acting president of south korea. is a powerd there vacuum in south korea with the president being ousted on those impeachment charges. then we do not know what the next policy of the next president is going to be in south korea. and what will china do? will they come on board with the trump administration? there are so many issues they need to discuss. china holds all the cards with north korea. this is what one risk expert had to say about that.
>> this is an important visit for rex tillerson. he has north korea firmly in his sights. i think the policy options for the united states are very limited, other than trying to apply leverage to china. china hasssumes that the maximum potential leverage on north korea. the u.s. has relatively little, other than to try and co-opt china to do what it wants to do. keep in mind, the chinese did come up with a new approach to north korea as recently as earlier this month. their suspension for suspension plan, pitched to the united states the north korea could potentially abandon its ballistic missile and nuclear program in exchange for the south koreans and the united scrappingitaries their joint war games. the u.s. rejected that. maybe we are back to square one? we have been back to
square one in numerous times over the past 25, 30 years. i guess we have to wait and see what the new approach is going to be. steve engle live a for us out of tokyo. rex tillerson makes his way to beijing tomorrow. markets,e a look at trading in the last session of the week. pretty decent as far as equities are concerned, but nothing else? looking pretty good, apart from japan, which is down one third of 1% on the nikkei index. the yen stronger, up 1/10 of 1%. malaysia, still outbid, 7/10 of 1%. we heard janet yellen saying she would keep this policy accommodative threat the course of the year. we have seen a strong bid coming through for emerging assets in malaysia. jumping the most
since january and continuing to rise against the dollar today, up 2/10 of 1%. we see yields coming back after we saw that big dump in treasury yields yesterday. the australian ten-year up four basis points. a little move coming through from the bond market. we are seeing japan, weighing on the overall index. 1%,s up for tenths of higher for its sixth consecutive session, the longest since january this year. strong momentum coming through in asian equity stocks, japan taking that yen higher. this yen is holding at its highest level since june 2015. the market to keep an eye on is this rally in hong kong. they had their best weeks in september, optimism about this dovish federal reserve, pushed the benchmark through that key
resistance level. this is a three day chart. we have seen hong kong stocks at an absolute a are this week. up at 3.4%. still seeing solid momentum in chinese shares listed in hong kong. the outlook for the chinese economy, more stable. we have seen the fed increasing interest rates. all that playing into a fairly positive outlook for hong kong today. david: absolutely. maybe to add what she pointed out earlier, because hong kong's shares have outperformed compared to china, this valuation gap or premium asia has had, over eight shares is at the narrowest since december of 2014. thisinteresting how converged across valuations. speaking about china later on spence in to michael
bloomberg markets asia, i am david ingles. let's look at the latest business headlines. toshiba, a very good day for the stock. 5%. they may win state support. it has actually received several bids for its memory business, including the innovation network, though this has not yet been confirmed. some have expressed interest. toshiba is considering physical assets in the face of
multibillion-dollar losses at its u.s. units. kong, we haveong details of this latest turnaround, reporting a first lost -- loss in eight years. by 30% at the mid-senior management level. this revamp and rethinking plan will be announced, come june. there are rising costs and increasing competition from a lot of these big asian airlines. has issuesxecutive over his residency status. gulliver lost a london court date centering on where he was living. the ruling says the government is not making any allegations of impropriety, he spent
significant area banks of his time in asia. a chairman says the rally that swept across european trading after the dutch elections will not last. we spoke to david earlier. he said the region will be plagued by political uncertainty for the rest of this year. >> political risk is at the top of our risk agenda. sayingve been clearly that the top risk we face is going to be political risk. it has migrated from being in emerging markets phenomenon to a mature markets phenomenon. what you are seeing the market is, there are a number of things. just the first data point on a much longer trajectory of european elections. the next one will be france and then the german election. there are talks about early election and italy. as these data points are realized, the market is reeling.
they are more concerned, depending on the results. what we saw in the dutch election, the center is holding. the liberal party has not lost as much growth as was feared. and that leads to a short relief rally in the market. it is not going to laugh because the next election is up in april and may in france and there are big concerns there, as there was in the dutch election that the center might not hold in the market is going to look at every data point, every speech and political actor to decide the risk, and take another step back a european integration. european integration is challenged by brexit. that is the first data point the market was concerned about. there was a lot of uncertainty and strong movement and volatility in the market. that will continue. europe will be plagued by political uncertainty the entire year. might come back
as a problem over the summer. plenty of political risk that could materialize in europe in the market will react with the volatility and caution as these data points materialize when the elections happen. >> early elections in greece now. let's talk about brexit. you're thinking about 1300 jobs moving from london as a result of brexit. are you making an assumption that we will see a hard exit -- brexit? >> what we need to do is manage risk. prepared for every eventuality. in terms of our planning the need to look into these options. the key for us is not to take a certain decision. we have to maintain as much as we can options. we do not want to make decisions we will regret. wait for ourord to decisions until the political dust has settled. a key point will be the
50, which of article makes the exit of britain almost and on reversible trajectory. then we will see how hopeful we can be that market access from britain to european markets will continue. i think it is not going to continue on the basis of the old arrangement. britain needs to have a completely new arrangement with of the e.u. a short transition time is not in my expectation. we need to understand what the new arrangement will be. it will have to be a new service and trade agreement with of the e.u. those take a long time to negotiate. is lookingal sector that financial services make it to the top of the priority -- priority list of theresa may's government. we do not have the impression that has happened. that will be a very important commitment for the financial
industry about london. that they understand financial services and access to the e.u. is going to be a key priority of the administration. >> you do not have optimism that she will come back with assurance that financial services are key? >> we are hoping to see it, but have not seen it yet. thatooner they get reassurance that the city of london is going to be a core priority of theresa may's government, the longer it takes, the more lingering there will be. >> we are going to be talking about markets more on the show later on. and where we go from here. equities are getting tough. ♪
when you look at that equity space and take japan out of the equation for today, we are at the largest streak of the year. indonesia up with a fresh record. let's bring in the chief market strategist of aig. chris, thank you for joining us on the program. we were wondering what the tilt was from -- was it hawkish, dovish? chris: chris: rates came down significantly. i could make an argument it was hawkish. the distribution of state members increased. from that perspective there is more conviction than there was for three members. the market is very short on treasuries and u.s. dollars. the conviction between the fed has increased.
i say this is slightly hawkish. the fed optimistic about the outlook. if donald trump can, that is a big if, can push through d regulations and fiscal reform, then i think it will be proven the fed won't be behind the curve. june is very much in play? financial conditions, whether you look at goldman sachs's index or bloomberg's index, have not deteriorated significantly on the back of a rate hike. everyone had ratcheted up to their expectations. that should not happen. there is a reason the federal reserve and others tighten conditions. are we going to see a june hike? i think they are confused and
bewildered by what they had seen there. we could have a look at financial conditions, we will have to see what happens with the data. that is my base case, a rate hike in june. david: you see equity markets seeing this through? look at the markets we are at now for indonesia. rising rates are not conducive to em equities doing well. chris: david, if you look at nightstes on wednesday in the u.s. and thursday in asia, they came down significantly. that is what causes the big move up in risk sentiment. inflation-adjusted yields are still in negative territory, especially emerging-market equities will do well. they will front support. that to me is the big issue.
if real rates push up to positive territory, they will be sold again and that is for me the major point, what happens to real rates? david: when it comes to your market in australia we have been playing around the 5800 level. january, february, and we are back here again. there is a substantial amount of volume coming through the market. when will we see a breakup? chris: the key level is the january, february, march double talk. i think it wants to break there. every time we look like we will roll over we see it stepping in and nice flow there on the side. i think the market wants to go higher. if you start increasing your bullish allocation, the market shows you the bulls are in control.
i think risk appetites are what we are looking at, emerging markets and european markets. in the short-term, they are not that high. david: i want to get your thoughts on the bank of england. while to getus a from a vote to a majority as far as we go for hikes in the u.k. when you see the boe hiking rates? chris: the market has a 56% chance over the next 12 months. forbesan -- kristin steps down in june. probably replaced by someone less hawkish than she is. there are people on the board talking about economic improvement coming through. the argument in the u.k. is more about when they hike then when they start raising measures. in thend at the moment .ast 24 hours ratcheted up
, i am paulson the -- paul allen with the latest news. global trade could be setback decade of president trump or taxes thefs wto. he says antagonism between the u.s. and major partners would be bad outcomes after 30 years of globalization. chart has been acting a potential disruptions for some time. is shutting down its distress fund. they have been given the opportunity to shift money.
there is a desire of hedge funds to shield themselves from quarterly redemption, which can be difficult. saysmer boj official japan may have a loss of $50 billion in fiscal 2021. and it could ease quantitative easing. they say it will continue to run until 2029. the governor has brushed off the details of what will happen, and -- when the unprecedented program comes to an end. french authorities joining a british inquiry into airbus about possible fraud, bribery and corruption related to third-party consultants. andus is cooperating fully has dropped the middle man in question and suspects -- expects guarantees to be restored. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600
journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ thank you, paul. traders at tokyo are back at their desks. we are back at the reopen for markets in tokyo. they did not exactly play ball, did they? way to is not a nice speak about japanese traders, as robots. we see the weakness in japanese equities weighing on the overall index, which is flat at the moment. if you strip out japan is see a brighter picture. hong kong stronger today. hong kong's hang seng on track. positive emerging markets, malaysia in particular is one to watch. at least we are staying above water in terms of being flat on the regional index even though you're seeing weakness from japan.
let's look at the stocks in the region. stocks falling amid concerns discounts could slow sales. back in the black after a couple sessions a very heavy losses. up by 6% as it comes online in the tokyo session. this amid reports it could attract 10 potential bidders. ramsey health care on a tear in sydney. michael mccarthy saying you do not get opportunities to buy top-quality stocks at lower pe's and it is looking attractive after a recent selloff. we have seen health-care stocks better across the region today. look at oil. we see oil on track for its first weekly game this month as we saw the u.s. stockpiles dropped. remember tuesday we had the 2.7% drop coming through in the crude contract.
but it did rebound after the fed. we see it coming through in the $45.85.ntext, up 1%, whale have made a big turnaround from that huge drop we saw earlier in the week. david? david: you can barely see the blitz anymore. let's stand in the oil space. saudi arabia is looking to deepen its investment in the china oil industry as part of a $65 billion worth of deals between the countries. chinese firms looking at a $2 billion plant. officials are discussing the possibility of a commonwealth fund, coc, investing in saudi aramco. saudi arabia says supply cuts may be extended if necessary.
the curbs will be needed to sustain the stockpiles, that do remain above the five-year average. he thinks markets are not confident on the outlook. it listen. >> our objective in doing what we do is really the fundamentals. saudi arabia is driven by bringing supply and demand and to balance, encouraging investment flows, and making sure that global underpinnings, which had been in a glut situation are back to where they should be in terms of long-term averages. eyesis where i have my focused on. managed, wesily would have to monitor too many variables here. the fundamentals have significantly improved over the last few months.
prices will fluctuate up and down. there are other factors into play like speculators and financial investors, currencies. fundamentals, i am quite satisfied we are going in the right direction. also, my colleagues from oil-producing nations have been cooperating with us quite nicely. and i think we are satisfied that we are on track. and a daily or weekly fluctuations in price are not as important as looking at fundamentals. is it true inventories of not come down as much a saudi arabia expected? what would be the trigger for you and fellow oil-producing nations to say they should do more? >> we're looking at global inventories. inventories, data, transparency
are not perfect and it takes time for inventories to correct. demand in the first quarter is not the highest. it has taken time for some of that data to show. we believe we are on the right track. i think some by midyear we will look at where we are. it is premature for us in mid-march to be making a determination what to do. this six-month program will take its course. we are committed to it. my colleagues from other countries are equally committed. i think late in the second quarter we will be looking at what needs to be done to ensure those fundamental factors that we are after. >> in terms of extending production cuts, at the six month mark there is a possibility you will sit down with oil producers?
>> if it is needed, yes. >> how do you know if it is needed? it is aboveee if the year average, for example. if the markets are still not confident, if we do not see companies and investors feeling good about the health of the global oil industry, then we will signal to them what we are going to do and what it takes to bring the industry back to a healthy situation. david: that was saudi's energy minister talking to our kathleen hays. we are seeing something in the markets we do not usually seen. where you have both of the equity space in japan and the yuan down. is at the beginning of a decoupling between the currency and stocks in japan?
what explains this divergence? there was a breakdown along money relationships. they areok today, down. theyu look at the topix, have gains but moved in opposite directions. this year we have seen a different pattern coming. the yen is playing less of a role in influencing if their stock market moves. the global economies are picking up. the signs are good for japanese companies. domestic demand and consumption is improving. that is a helpful boost that is upsetting the moves. the yen strengthens. the yen, bad for equities. >> yes. yesterday, the boj governor said there are still downside risks.
a downside for japan. there is an issue there. generally speaking, people who i have spoken to are expecting gains in the topix and nikkei this year. >> one of the consistent topics we have heard the past few weeks, it is a way to play reflation trade when you have the dollar-yen on the way up. but you have to assume it reverts back to the mean. what is the outlook on the yen? look toen is likely to stay on range and weaken a bit. but there is still uncertainty. if you look to europe and the various selections -- elections, it could take forever. we do not wanted to move too fast. people are saying between 110 and 120 this year. >> if we could get into my bloomberg and show this correlation chart.
we showed you the widening gap between topics. this is one way of looking at it. the correlation was not as high as it was before but it depends on your settings. side-by-side, hopefully that breaks down if you are an equity investor. the yen is controlled by other things. to pin yourard hopes on something you cannot control. especially when it comes to your money. will davis, thank you. we have a breakdown of correlation in the equity space. one feature on the bloomberg we would like to bring to your attention is our interactive tv function. our version of smart tv. you cannot only watch us live but see previous interviews, dive into securities and anything we pull up on the show, the functions we talk about. you can become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during our shows. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. check it out at tv .
infrastructure will have impact but not to the same extent as china does. we are pretty positive on the chinese economy. we are currently very positive on the chinese equity departments. with there to do complementary's we are seeing that have been building up. the physical markets have seen those kind of impacts. ago, nine months
ago, if we had a tightening policy in china what reaction what we have from market? >> no worse than what we're seeing now. >> the markets are showing resilience. it is a reflection of recovery. the markets are moving closely on shadow banking and closing down these zombie companies. the problem is just getting worse, not better. the question is, how long before the government starts to move on this? i would say, as soon as you see 19tharty congress, the party congress, they will be moving. selection we have heard from bloomberg tv. our next guest sees us entering a bumpy deceleration, not a null down. we are joined by nobel laureate, michael spence. mr. spence, thank you for joining us this morning.
the last time you spoke last year, the chinese currency was under tremendous amount of pressure. it stabilized somewhat but the cost was about half a trillion in reserves. a currency that is nominally weaker by 7%. and frankly, a market that is still nervous. how do you see this playing out with the prospect of higher rates in the united states? >> i think we will see a continuation of what we got. becauseation stabilized they clamped down on capital controls, which gives them an youity to engage in what might call a gradual depreciation of a currency until he gets into a territory that people think is vaguely like a market equilibrium. then i think they will increase the band. they want to do it gradually because they want the currency to be used in international trade as part of a increase, influence in the global economy
agenda. it looks like they can do it. if they had not but the capital controls on, they would've had that loss of control situation. that: i want to pick up on point of yours. given the information we have come a when you see it fully converted? back in 2011 when i was covering china, one thing that stuck with me is whenever you ask a question, when will the currency be fully convertible the timeframe they mentioned was 2017, 2018. that is right now. it is more open but the currency is nowhere near fully convertible. mr. spence: no. i think that was an overly optimistic estimate. your guests were talking about a few minutes ago is correct. there is a very major reform agenda before them in the sector, that has to do
with banks, allocation [no audio] that you can just have flows in and out without excess volatility. athink we are looking at reform agenda that everybody hopes is part of the next five years and probably four to five years before you have a currency that starts to resemble the reserve currencies we have now. david: to pick up on your point again, these concerns over nonperforming loans, i get the depth. we have not been talking about that a lot. my guess, when you look at nominal growth, it has started to pick up. is it safe to assume that china will simply outgrow the debt problem or if it does not manage to outgrow it is limited to the banks? i think the debt
large, ishile manageable given the overall balance sheet of the state. the issue really is that the system is capable of miss allocating capital. the issue as far as i am concerned is the reforms. you do not 18 financial system that allocates capital and credit to the creation of assets that turn out to be less than the cost to produce them. issue is a going forward issue. will they do this again? will there be directed lending? lending that produces excess capacity, speculative real estate estimates and so on, that probably should not have more mature in a financial system, would not happen. david: we are pointing to what
you pointed to as the pervasiveness of state control when it comes to the financials. than anre a bureaucracy efficient way of allocating capital. what is the solution? is there a solution within the current structure when you have the state dominating the country banks? mr. spence: yes, i think so. i do not think you necessarily have to conclude that everything has to be private. you can have state-owned banks and private banks. government have a that basically does not engage in interference. the financial sector and the state-owned enterprise sector and the financing of governments, especially state and local governments, provincial and local governments, are part of the same issue. but i think we do not have to privatize them. behave in get them to
the way they should, allocating capital efficiently. david: is a fully developed a bond market, would that solve that problem? mr. spence: go ahead. david: is a fully developed bond market part of the solution? allocating market capital instead of bureaucrats, that pretty much solves the problem. mr. spence: yes. bond markets are not a perfect substitute for banks. but bond markets help because they provide -- there is infrastructure that you need in equity markets, bond markets. deepening and regulating properly the bond markets would help enormously. the sovereign bond markets are already huge. the corporate bond markets are getting pretty big.
continue our conversation with nyu professor and nobel laureate michael spence who joins us from beijing. i want to get your thoughts on the pboc. advocate ofre an transparency and open communication. how would you rate the pboc's progress? mr. spence: i think the pboc is managing in a very complex environment very well.
are asked to do things they would rather not do. probably expanding credit to the extent it was expanded in the early post-crisis period would be an example of that. i am a great fan of the pboc. i think they are doing an excellent job in an extremely complex environment. david: is the fed model something they can emulate? too much ford are -- forward guidance creates disorder, as well. is spence: i think the pboc fairly far away in the number of dimensions of the fed model. i think they have to be more flexible with respect to almost everything. they still need to use administrative procedures as dealas interest rates to
with potential disorders and other things in the economy. it is somewhat like the difference between formulating economic policy in a developing country as opposed to a fully developed one. to remain onneed the question of forward guidance, maintain flexibility. you lose credibility if you say something and then have to do something else. they are pretty clear in their own minds that there is enough surprise that the potential they do not want to be overcommitted on forward guidance. the broader picture, when you look at the chinese economy now, it is vastly different from 40 years ago. complexity ate, play here. when you look at the decision-making and how the economy is flooded it speaks to the point of how focused we are then a lot of ways,
planning of the economy is reminiscent of a centrally planned economy in the 1980's. what reforms do want to see? the road they are becausewn, we assume, it is what they say they are going to do, it is a question whether they get it done, is to have a well-defined a sector you associate with the market in the financial sector and the rest of the economy that is driven increasingly by normal incentives, innovation, a kind of dynamic economy. they want the state to be pretty of assetsce in terms that are available to deal with social issues and so on. what they have got to do is figure out how to keep these two things it reasonably separate.
and probably not everybody in the chinese government is completely committed to withdrawing the state from this private, dynamic private sector. it is an incomplete process. want a lot of new businesses, we want them to scale up, we want service businesses, but it is not a level playing field with regards to extending credit in the government and state owned enterprises in big companies. by the reformers and economic planners is well understood. a centrallywant planned or centrally directed economy. they want an economy that does what they are doing in shenzhen. but they have to get through the politics of getting there. david: it is the road from here
>> it is 12:00 in hong kong. let's try that again. global stocks are on course for the best week since the start of the year. when you look at tokyo, markets declining. hong kong trading fairly flat. utilities on the hang seng knew the lowest level in two years. cathay pacific has released details of its turnaround plan after reporting a loss. costsntend to cut staff by